Opinion: Florida is Trump’s Best, Last Chance. He’s Losing.
Barring an electoral miracle, Trump cannot win reelection without carrying his home state of Florida. Since 1992, Florida has swung in the direction of the presidential victor, in some cases outright determining the winner. With 29 electoral votes and a history of messy close calls, Florida has been one of the most heavily contested states in American politics, and this trend is set to continue in 2020. Throughout the year, Biden’s polling lead in this state has been steady, though within the margin of error, and demographic patterns have shifted unexpectedly in the former vice-president’s favor. Unless several critical groups turn out in record numbers, upsetting the polls and current voter trends, Trump is likely to lose Florida. And if he loses Florida, he will almost certainly lose the presidency.
The polls in the nation’s most populous swing state clearly indicate Trump’s uphill battle. As of just a day before the election, the polling average shows Biden ahead by more than 3 points, a lead that has extended back through April. The margin is by no means insurmountable for the Trump campaign, but more issues arise when the data is considered in conjunction with demographic trends and early voting patterns. In 2016, Trump was buoyed to victory in Florida by numerous key groups such as whites, Cuban-Americans, and voters over 65. Since then, nearly all of these groups have either defected to Biden, or declined in overall influence. Notably, many polls have documented a shift in elderly voters towards Biden, likely as a result of Trump’s widely-criticized response to the deadly coronavirus pandemic. This decline in support is particularly challenging for Trump, not just because elderly voters traditionally have the highest turnout rates across all age categories, but also because this group supported him in 2016 by a margin of almost 20 points. Without the backing of this crucial demographic, Trump will need to make up the difference elsewhere, potentially among white men. But this portion of the electorate is also in decline both in Florida and across the country, providing less ground for the Trump campaign to stand on. In fact, with the largest Latino electorate of all battleground states, Florida could easily be decided by minority voters, among whom Democrats have a growing advantage.
More troubling for the Trump campaign than the actual polling numbers is their stagnancy. Despite a wild campaign season featuring multiple crises, scandals, and surprises each week, Biden’s lead has remained largely steady since the beginning of 2020. If nothing Trump did within the first 10 months of the year could alter his Florida election prospects, it’s doubtful anything he has done in the last 10 days could break this trend. In addition, many of the critical votes that will decide the statewide race have long since been cast. A full two weeks before the election, more votes had already been cast in Florida than the total number of residents who voted for Trump in 2016. Current estimates show that over 60% of all registered voters have already voted either by mail-in or early in-person, and among these votes, Democrats hold the advantage. Even if Trump motivates an unprecedented surge of support on Election Day, the current margin between Democrat and Republican votes only further limits his ability to make up lost ground.
According to polling experts, the combination of all these elements translates to a roughly 70% chance that Biden will win the state of Florida on November 3rd. For a field still badly marred by 2016’s shakeup, such predictions may seem worthless. Yet in reality, there is little cause to fundamentally distrust the findings of 2020 election polling. At the state level, many aspects of polling techniques have been changed to better accommodate variables such as education, and on the national level, the 2016 polls were far less inaccurate than widely believed. Additionally, Biden currently enjoys a more secure position than Clinton’s at this point in the last election. In November 2016, when Trump staged an upset in Florida, he prevailed over odds of only 51–44 in Clinton’s favor. Thus, although a comeback in this state would be completely within the realm of possibility, the margin of error between Trump and Biden would have to be even greater than it was four years ago.
What does the outcome in the Sunshine State mean for the general election? While winning Florida does not guarantee an overall victory for Trump, losing it all but cements his fate as a single-term president. Even within the Trump campaign, advisors could only find 2 out of hundreds of scenarios in which the president could lose Florida but still achieve reelection. Both of these scenarios would require Trump to take the upper Midwestern trifecta of Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania; all states where he is currently losing by greater margins than Florida’s race.
It’s not all bad news for the Trump campaign. Several reports have shown Trump over-performing among the Hispanic population, which accounts for a historically-influential slice of the Floridian electorate. While the Latino vote is far from a homogeneous block, certain communities within this category, particularly Cuban-Americans, have demonstrated strong support for the president. Cuban-Americans also make up the single-largest group among registered Latinos in Florida, although their influence may be counter-balanced by the 71% of registered Latinos from other countries of origin. Additionally, select voting trends affirm President Trump’s continued competitiveness in the state. Since 2016, the percentage of Republican registered voters has risen to compete with Democratic levels, potentially giving President Trump a greater voting base to pull from.
Overall, is it possible for Trump to win his new home state? Very much so. But the odds are decidedly more under than over. In addition, even if Trump does surmount obstacles to gain victory in Florida, his reelection is far from secured. In order to reach the crucial 270 electoral votes, Trump needs to not only secure all the toss-up states including Florida, but also poach a few that are currently leaning Democratic. Meanwhile, FiveThirtyEight envisions over a dozen scenarios in which Biden could lose Florida’s 29 electoral votes and still take the presidency. In other words, Florida guarantees success only to the candidate who could do without it. And the candidate who needs it the most is currently losing.
