Opinion: Is Georgia the New Virginia?

In the aftermath of the 2020 election, the state of Georgia has emerged as the unexpected arbiter of America’s political fate. A Republican stronghold for decades, Georgia’s recent Democratic shift has led many to question whether its electorate is undergoing a drastic, lasting transformation. One need not look far to find the precedent for such a shift in the southern US. The Commonwealth of Virginia, formerly considered a critical swing state, has become increasingly less competitive as demographics have shifted in the Democratic Party’s favor. As recently as 2016, Virginia enjoyed an outsized share of national attention during the election season, with candidate Hillary Clinton even selecting her running mate with the state’s 13 electoral votes in mind. But in 2020, both campaigns spent little money and less time in the Old Dominion, where Biden prevailed by over 10 points. Clearly, demographic shifts in this state over the past several years have fundamentally changed the electorate, and will no doubt continue to do so for election cycles to come. But questions remain as to whether this change is a uniquely Virginian phenomenon, or if such seismic voting shifts can be replicated elsewhere. According to the numbers, the main conditions that prompted a dramatic reversal of voting behavior in Virginia are indeed present in Georgia, and although the same results may not occur there for a number of years, the gradual shift of the Peach State towards the Democratic Party will be difficult to reverse if current trends hold true.

Though Virginia’s transition from swing to safe state was no doubt influenced by a host of societal and cultural factors, the driving force behind the shift was entirely demographic. For years, the electoral divide between urban and rural voters has been deepening, with city dwellers consistently backing Democrats, country residents increasingly voting Republican, and suburban voters largely split down the middle. As the nation becomes more polarized along these domestic lines, the same demographic split also becomes indicative of how voters will behave in future elections. Therein lies the problem for Republicans, both in Virginia and nationally. As urbanization expands and rural communities shrink more with each census, the GOP’s core base becomes less and less influential over the direction of each state’s political leaning. Increasingly, former suburbs have been annexed by growing cities, causing the former countryside to accommodate more and more suburban voters. And as these suburban voters themselves shift more Democratic, the Republican Party finds itself with an unsustainable long-term business model.

Such is the case in Virginia, where the expansion of DC suburbs into the northern regions of the state has caused the population to grow exponentially since the year 2000. Nearly all of the state’s growth has been concentrated in metropolitan areas, while the population in rural areas has witnessed an overall decline since 2010. Unsurprisingly, the places with the greatest growth in population over the last decade are also the state’s most Democratic, and the margins of victory have only grown along with the population rate. Such fractures between liberal and conservative locales are easily identifiable when comparing northern Loudoun and southwestern Buchanan counties, Virginia’s fastest-growing and fastest-shrinking regions respectively. Loudoun, with an explosive population growth of 23 percent since 2010, swung to Obama by only four points in 2012 and helped him to a narrow statewide victory over challenger Mitt Romney. Four years later, the same county backed Clinton by nearly 20 points, and she went on to win the state more handily than her predecessor. In 2020, the state was entirely out of contention; Biden won Loudoun by 25 points, and the state itself by over 10. Meanwhile in Buchanan County, the results are drastically inverted. In 2012, the county went for Romney by a generous margin of nearly 35 points, but as the population fell, partisanship sharply increased. The county backed Trump by 60 points in 2016, and again in 2020 by approximately 68 points. Clearly, Virginia’s blue wave has left some corners of the state high and dry. But these shrinking pockets of Republican support have been increasingly drowned out over the years by surging numbers in Democratic strongholds, and these shifts in population have been enough to cement the state’s solidly-blue status.

All signs point to Virginia maintaining its pattern of electoral predictability for the foreseeable future. But as some swing states fade from the national attention span, others emerge to take their place. In 2020, all eyes are on Georgia as the unlikely blue state goes on to determine control of the Senate during President Biden’s first term. The immediate political prospects of both parties now rest on the essential question: have the same trends that so dramatically transformed places like Virginia also occurred in Georgia?

The answer is a qualified yes. Though the picture in the Peach State is far more nuanced than its northern counterpart, there is a similarly clear correlation between Georgia’s population growth and increasing Democratic support. The main difference between Virginia and Georgia lies in the degree to which these changes have already taken place. In the latter, the Democratic gains made in places with accelerating population rates have not yet succeeded in flipping the districts, but only narrowing the margins of Republican victory. In the 2020 election, only one of the top five fastest-growing counties in Georgia swung for Biden, and the three regions with the greatest population surges — Long, Forsyth, and Byran counties — all voted for Trump by margins of about 30 points each. While such returns may initially seem discouraging for Democrats, these victories are actually far closer than prior elections before a population boom took place. For example in Forsyth County, an extended suburb of Atlanta, the margin by which the Republican candidate won declined precipitously, down from a margin of 47 points in 2016 and 63 points in 2012. The inverse is also true; in the rapidly-shrinking Hancock and Macon counties, Republicans are improving their margins while the regions continue to decline in overall influence. These findings demonstrate a recurring theme: areas with decreasing population are becoming more Republican, while places of population growth are becoming more Democratic. These are the same trends that ultimately flipped Virginia, and if they continue in Georgia, it will be increasingly difficult for Republicans to overtake strong urban and suburban showings by Democrats with votes from rapidly-shrinking rural populations.

Joe Biden won Georgia in 2020 because of unprecedented competitive strength among growing suburban areas, and because the state’s most populated counties were also its most Democratic. Just as in Virginia over the past decade, the population growth in urban and suburban areas of the Peach State bodes well for the Democratic Party moving forward. Notably, Georgia is several stages behind Virginia in its progression toward urbanization, and although Biden continued Democratic gains in several key suburbs, these areas may still swing Republican for several years to come. Yet the current demographic trends, though slow, are unmistakable. While it may take time, Georgia is set to follow in Virginia’s footsteps to flip reliably blue over the next several cycles. The immediate future of the parties may remain uncertain, but the ultimate electoral status of Georgia is only a matter of time and demographic destiny.